Robbery incidents have fluctuated over the years but show a slight downward trend overall. In 2010, there were 9 robberies, and in 2022, there were 8. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.113 in 2010 to 0.085 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.04% to 0.26%, indicating that robbery is not a major concern compared to other violent crimes in the area.

Aggravated assault cases have shown the most variability. From 61 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 129 in 2018 before declining to 56 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.767 in 2010 to a high of 1.458 in 2018, then down to 0.598 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has also varied, reaching a high of 0.78% in 2018 before decreasing to 0.32% in 2022. This trend suggests improvements in recent years but also highlights the need for continued vigilance.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,608 per square mile in 2010 to 3,070 in 2022, violent crime rates initially decreased but then saw an uptick in the middle of the decade before declining again. This suggests that other factors beyond population density are influencing crime rates.

Median rent shows a potential correlation with violent crime trends. As median rent increased from $1,039 in 2013 to $1,268 in 2022, violent crime rates initially spiked but have since shown a downward trend. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may be contributing to reduced crime rates in recent years.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on recent trends, we expect the number of violent crimes to potentially decrease to around 80-85 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current social and economic conditions remain relatively stable and that community-based crime prevention efforts continue.

In summary, O'Fallon has experienced complex violent crime trends amidst significant population growth. While murder and robbery rates have remained relatively low, the increase in rape cases is a significant concern. Aggravated assaults, though variable, have shown recent improvement. The city's growing population and increasing property values may be influencing these trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on addressing sexual violence and maintaining the downward trend in aggravated assaults will be crucial for improving public safety in O'Fallon.