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Violent Crime Trends in Oak Grove, Missouri: A City of Zero Murders Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Oak Grove, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with a notable increase from 9 cases in 2010 to 11 cases in 2022, representing a 22.2% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 10,904 to 12,788, a 17.3% increase, indicating that crime growth slightly outpaced population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. This statistic is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consequently remained at 0% throughout the observed years.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, and by 2022, this number had increased to 6, representing a 200% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate increased from 0.18 to 0.47 per 1,000 residents. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.28% in 2022, up from 0.19% in 2010. This trend suggests a growing concern for sexual violence in the community relative to state figures.
Robbery trends show a more modest increase. From no reported cases in 2010, the city saw 2 robberies in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 to 0.16. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased from 0% to 0.07% over this period, indicating a slight uptick in the city's share of state robberies.
Aggravated assault cases decreased from 7 in 2010 to 3 in 2022, a 57.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.64 to 0.23. The city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased from 0.05% to 0.02%, suggesting an improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and rape incidents. As the population density increased from 1,700 per square mile in 2010 to 1,994 in 2022, rape cases also generally trended upward. Additionally, there's a weak negative correlation between the white population percentage and overall violent crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 91% in 2013 to 93% in 2022, there was a slight overall decrease in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trends: - Murder rates are likely to remain at or near zero. - Rape incidents may continue to increase, potentially reaching 8-10 cases annually. - Robbery cases are expected to stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year. - Aggravated assaults might see a slight uptick, possibly returning to 5-7 cases annually.
In summary, Oak Grove has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murder rates have remained consistently at zero, there are concerning increases in rape incidents. Robbery has seen a slight increase, while aggravated assaults have decreased. The city's growing population and increasing density appear to have some correlation with these trends, particularly in sexual violence cases. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders may need to focus on sexual violence prevention and maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories to ensure the safety and well-being of the growing population.
