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Violent Crime Trends in Oak Grove, Kentucky: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Oak Grove, located in Kentucky, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of moderate population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with 27 incidents reported in 2010 and 23 in 2022, representing a 14.8% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 8,662 to 9,639, an 11.3% increase.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant volatility. The city reported no murders for most years, but saw spikes in 2012 (1 case), 2014 (2 cases), 2020 (2 cases), and 2022 (3 cases). The murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state murder statistics jumped dramatically in 2022, accounting for 3.85% of Kentucky's murders, a significant increase from previous years.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a general upward trend. The number of reported rapes increased from 7 in 2010 to 7 in 2022, with a peak of 14 cases in 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, moving from 0.81 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases has varied, reaching a high of 2.03% in 2020 before declining to 0.96% in 2022.
Robbery trends show a decrease over time, from 9 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 33.3% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.04 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.84% in 2022, indicating a relatively higher share of state robberies despite the local decrease.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall decreasing trend, from 11 incidents in 2010 to 7 in 2022, a 36.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.27 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 1.35% in 2018 before decreasing to 0.43% in 2022.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in population density and changes in violent crime patterns. As the population density increased from 808 per square mile in 2010 to 900 in 2022, there were notable shifts in crime rates. Additionally, the rising median rent, from $846 in 2013 to $1,051 in 2022, coincided with fluctuations in violent crime, suggesting potential socioeconomic factors at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. However, the sporadic nature of serious crimes like murder in small populations makes precise predictions challenging.
In summary, Oak Grove has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns from 2010 to 2022. While some categories like robbery and aggravated assault have shown overall decreases, others like murder and rape have seen concerning spikes in recent years. The city's growing population and changing demographics, coupled with economic factors like rising rent, appear to influence these trends. As the community continues to develop, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining public safety and addressing the evolving nature of violent crime in the area.
