Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low and stable. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 7 incidents per year, with 1 robbery reported in 2022 (0.04 per 1,000 residents). The city's contribution to state robbery cases has been consistently low, peaking at 0.21% in 2012 and dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.

Aggravated assault has shown more volatility. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 4 in 2019 (0.17 per 1,000 residents) to a high of 20 in 2021 (0.87 per 1,000 residents), before slightly decreasing to 18 in 2022 (0.77 per 1,000 residents). The city's share of state aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0.07% and 0.22% during this period. This recent uptick in aggravated assaults warrants attention from local law enforcement.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,597 per square mile in 2010 to 2,751 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in total violent crimes, though not consistently year-over-year. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime rates. For instance, as the white population percentage decreased from 85% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, there was a subtle increase in overall violent crime incidents.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the recent patterns. Aggravated assaults may remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially averaging around 15-20 incidents per year. Rape cases are projected to stabilize at approximately 7-10 per year. Robbery rates are expected to remain low, likely not exceeding 2-3 incidents annually. Murder rates are predicted to stay at or near zero, maintaining the city's record of extremely rare homicides.

In summary, Northfield has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with notable increases in rape and aggravated assault during certain years. However, the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low for a city of its size. The consistent absence of murders and low robbery rates contribute to a generally safe environment. Moving forward, local authorities should focus on addressing the slight uptick in aggravated assaults while maintaining vigilance in preventing sexual assaults. Northfield's commitment to public safety, coupled with its growing population and evolving demographics, will be crucial factors in shaping its crime landscape in the coming years.