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Violent Crime Trends in Nokomis, Illinois: A Decade of Low Crime Rates and Emerging Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Nokomis, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2012 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2012 and ending at 12 in 2020, representing a slight decrease of 7.7%. During this same period, the population decreased from 1,743 in 2012 to 1,433 in 2020, a decline of 17.8%.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2016. This single incident represented 0.11% of the state's murders that year. Given the small population, this translates to a rate of 0.63 murders per 1,000 people in 2016. In all other years from 2012 to 2020, there were no reported murders, indicating an overall very low murder rate for the city.
Rape incidents show a concerning upward trend. From no reported cases in 2012-2015, the city saw 1 case in 2016 (0.03% of state total), rising to 4 cases in 2018 (0.09% of state total) and 2020 (0.12% of state total). This increase is particularly significant given the declining population. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2015 to 2.79 in 2020, a substantial increase that warrants attention.
Robbery has been almost non-existent in the city. Only one case was reported in 2014, representing 0.01% of the state's robberies that year. This translates to a rate of 0.61 robberies per 1,000 people in 2014. In all other years from 2012 to 2020, no robberies were reported, indicating an extremely low robbery rate for the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city, though showing a generally decreasing trend. In 2012, there were 13 cases (0.05% of state total), peaking at 20 cases in 2013 (0.2% of state total), and then declining to 8 cases in 2020 (0.03% of state total). Despite the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 people has also declined, from 7.46 in 2012 to 5.58 in 2020, representing a 25.2% decrease in the rate of aggravated assaults.
There appears to be a correlation between the slight increase in violent crimes and the gradual increase in median rent, which rose from $590 in 2013 to $710 in 2020. This could suggest economic pressures potentially influencing crime rates. Additionally, the city has seen a minor shift in racial demographics, with the white population decreasing slightly from 98% in 2013 to 97% in 2020, while the Asian population increased from 0% to 2%. However, the impact of these demographic changes on crime rates appears minimal given the overall low crime numbers.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crimes by 2029. Based on the upward trend in rape cases and the fluctuating but persistent aggravated assault numbers, the total violent crimes could reach approximately 15-18 cases annually by 2029, assuming population stabilization.
In summary, Nokomis has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common offense. The concerning rise in rape cases, contrasted with the near-absence of robberies and murders, presents a complex picture of public safety in this small Illinois community. These trends, coupled with demographic and economic changes, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies focusing on sexual offenses and assault prevention in the coming years.
