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Violent Crime Trends in Noel, Missouri: A Decade of Stability and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Noel, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a high of 11 in 2010 and 2015 to a low of 1 in 2014 and 2016. The overall trend shows a 36.36% decrease in violent crimes from 2010 to 2021. During this same period, the population declined by 8.68%, from 3,584 in 2010 to 3,273 in 2021.
Examining murder trends, Noel has maintained a consistent record of zero murders reported from 2010 to 2021. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero throughout this period, and consequently, the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2015, while several years (2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2019) saw no reported cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.95 in 2015 and was 0.31 in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.19% in 2010 and 0.16% in 2015, but dropping to 0.05% by 2021. This indicates that while rape incidents have been sporadic, they have generally represented a small fraction of the state's total.
Robbery trends in Noel have been remarkably stable, with zero reported robberies from 2010 to 2021. This consistency is notable given the population changes and suggests effective prevention or low propensity for this type of crime in the community. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's robbery statistics during this period.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 9 in 2010 and 2011, dropping to a low of 1 in 2014, 2016, and 2017. By 2021, there were 6 reported cases. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from a high of 2.51 in 2010 to a low of 0.31 in 2014 and 2016, rising to 1.83 in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has varied, peaking at 0.06% in 2010 and 2011, and settling at 0.04% in 2021. This indicates that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has remained low.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,769 per square mile in 2010 to 1,616 in 2021, violent crime rates showed an overall declining trend, despite some fluctuations. Median rent increased from $514 in 2017 to $716 in 2021, which coincided with a slight uptick in violent crimes from 2 to 7 during the same period, suggesting a potential, albeit weak, positive correlation.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Noel may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 8-10 incidents annually. This forecast assumes continued population stability and no significant changes in socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Noel has demonstrated a generally improving trend in violent crime rates from 2010 to 2021, with notable stability in murder and robbery incidents. The fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault cases, while present, have remained relatively low compared to state figures. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, along with the potential impact of rising median rents, provides valuable insights for future urban planning and crime prevention strategies in the city.
