Robbery trends show a decline over time. The highest number of robberies was 5 in 2012 and 2014 (0.61 per 1,000 people), dropping to zero incidents in 2017, 2019, and 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases peaked at 0.07% in 2014 and has since decreased, suggesting an improvement in this area of violent crime.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 3 in 2010 (0.36 per 1,000 people) to a peak of 10 in 2016, 2018, and 2019 (approximately 1.23 per 1,000 people). In 2022, there were 6 aggravated assaults (0.72 per 1,000 people). The city's share of state aggravated assaults reached its highest at 0.16% in 2016 and 2019, indicating that while the numbers are relatively low, they represent a consistent portion of the state's incidents.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,491 per square mile in 2010 to 2,490 in 2022, there was a corresponding fluctuation in violent crime rates. The racial distribution shows a slight decrease in the white population from 73% in 2013 to 72% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 11% to 13% over the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with changes in violent crime patterns, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the data from 2010 to 2022, we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. The city has shown resilience in maintaining low murder and robbery rates, and if this trend continues, these crimes are likely to remain infrequent. Rape and aggravated assault rates may fluctuate but are expected to remain within the ranges observed in recent years.

In summary, Newton has experienced varying levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common offense. The city has maintained a relatively low crime rate compared to state averages, particularly in murders and robberies. While there have been fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault incidents, the overall trend suggests a stable or potentially improving situation. The relationship between demographic changes and crime rates provides insight into the evolving nature of public safety in the community. As Newton moves forward, continued monitoring and proactive measures will be crucial in maintaining and potentially improving its safety profile.