Robbery trends in Newark have been more positive. The number of robberies decreased from 66 in 2010 to 48 in 2022, a 27.3% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.572 to 1.011 over this period. However, the city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.13% to 0.11%. This suggests that while Newark has made progress in reducing robberies, the improvement is roughly in line with state-wide trends.

Aggravated assault cases in Newark have seen a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 110 cases, which dropped to 79 in 2022, a 28.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.620 to 1.664. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults also fell from 0.15% to 0.08%. This substantial reduction in both absolute numbers and relative to the state indicates a positive trend in addressing this type of violent crime.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in violent crimes coincides with an increase in population density, which rose from 3,015 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,410 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the changing racial composition and crime rates. As the Asian population increased from 26% in 2013 to 41% in 2022, and the white population decreased from 30% to 20%, violent crime rates generally declined. This suggests that demographic shifts may have played a role in the changing crime landscape.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall violent crime rates. Based on recent trends, murders may remain relatively constant, while rape cases could continue to rise if current patterns persist. Robberies and aggravated assaults are likely to maintain their downward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate.

In summary, Newark has made significant progress in reducing most categories of violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. However, the increase in rape cases remains a concern that may require targeted intervention. The city's changing demographics, particularly the growing Asian population, correlate with overall crime reduction, suggesting possible cultural or socioeconomic factors at play. As Newark continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies while addressing specific areas of concern will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.