Robbery cases have seen a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 93 robberies, which decreased to 25 in 2022, a 73.1% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.205 in 2010 to 0.304 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies decreased from 0.36% to 0.12% over this period, suggesting a marked improvement in this category of violent crime.

Aggravated assault incidents have also decreased considerably. From 118 cases in 2010, the number fell to 36 in 2022, a 69.5% reduction. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.529 in 2010 to 0.437 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults dropped from 0.32% to 0.07%, indicating significant progress in reducing this type of violent crime.

There appears to be a correlation between the decrease in violent crime and the increase in median rent. As median rent rose from $1,279 in 2013 to $1,709 in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased. This could suggest that improved economic conditions or changes in neighborhood demographics may have contributed to reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in violent crime rates. However, the rate of decrease may slow down as the numbers approach a lower threshold. We project that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could potentially drop to around 40-50 per year, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.

In summary, New Rochelle has made significant strides in reducing violent crime across all categories over the past decade. The substantial decreases in robbery and aggravated assault rates, coupled with the overall reduction in the city's share of state crimes, indicate effective law enforcement strategies and community initiatives. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.