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Violent Crime Trends in New Madrid: A Decade of Fluctuations and Recent Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
New Madrid, located in Missouri, is a small community with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1788. Over the past decade, this city has experienced significant changes in its violent crime rates and population dynamics. From 2014 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, peaking at 27 incidents in 2020 before decreasing to 7 in 2022, representing a 74.1% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population declined from 3,385 in 2014 to 2,984 in 2022, a 11.8% decrease.
The murder rate in the city has shown notable variability. The first recorded murder occurred in 2016, with one incident reported. This pattern continued in 2020 and 2021, each year seeing one murder, before dropping to zero in 2022. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.32 in 2020 and 2021, before falling to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate fluctuated, reaching 0.22% in 2016 and 0.21% in 2021, indicating that despite its small size, the city occasionally accounted for a noticeable portion of the state's murders.
Rape incidents in the city have remained consistently low. The first recorded rape occurred in 2016, with one incident reported. This pattern continued in 2020, 2021, and 2022, with one rape reported each year. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.31 in 2016 to 0.34 in 2022, due to the declining population. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases has remained steady at 0.05% from 2016 to 2022, suggesting a consistent, albeit small, impact on the state's overall rape statistics.
Interestingly, the data shows no reported robberies in New Madrid from 2014 to 2022. This absence of robbery incidents is noteworthy, especially considering the presence of other violent crimes during this period.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 4 in 2014 to a peak of 25 in 2020, before decreasing to 6 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase from 2014 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.18 in 2014 to 7.96 in 2020, before falling to 2.01 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assaults increased from 0.03% in 2014 to 0.13% in 2020, before decreasing to 0.03% in 2022, indicating fluctuating significance in the state's assault statistics.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the city's racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 71% in 2014 to 62% in 2020, violent crimes increased. Conversely, as the white population rose to 69% in 2022, violent crimes decreased. The black population showed an inverse relationship, peaking at 35% in 2019 when violent crimes were on the rise.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the recent downward trend observed from 2020 to 2022 and assumes that current demographic and socioeconomic conditions remain relatively stable.
In summary, New Madrid has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's contribution to state crime statistics, while generally small, has shown notable variations, particularly in murder and aggravated assault rates. The correlation between racial demographics and crime rates suggests that societal factors may play a role in these trends. As the city moves forward, addressing these underlying factors could be crucial in maintaining the recent downward trend in violent crime.
