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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
New Franklin, Missouri, a small community with a population of 1,096 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from 0 to 9 incidents per year. During this period, the population decreased by 8.1%, from 1,310 in 2010 to 1,204 in 2019.
The city has reported no murders or non-negligent manslaughters throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2019. This consistent absence of homicides suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe violent crimes. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic, with only two reported cases between 2010 and 2019. These occurred in 2013 and 2015, each representing 0.05% of the state's total rape cases for their respective years. The rape rate per 1,000 people was 0.84 in 2013 and 0.78 in 2015, reflecting the low frequency of this crime. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall trend suggests that rape remains an infrequent occurrence in the community.
Robbery has been similarly rare, with only one reported incident in 2016. This single case represented 0.02% of the state's total robberies that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 people in 2016 was 0.76, indicating an exceptionally low incidence of this crime. The absence of robberies in other years further underscores the rarity of this offense in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring at relatively low rates. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0 and 8 incidents per year from 2010 to 2019. The highest number of cases was recorded in 2015 with 8 incidents, representing a rate of 6.26 per 1,000 people and 0.05% of the state's total aggravated assaults that year. However, the city experienced no aggravated assaults in 2010, 2017, 2018, and 2019, indicating a potential improvement in recent years.
There appears to be a weak correlation between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density fluctuated between 827 and 996 people per square mile from 2010 to 2022, violent crime rates did not consistently follow these changes. Similarly, no strong correlation is evident between median rent, which ranged from $431 to $802 during the available data years, and violent crime rates.
Racial distribution in the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority (89-96% between 2013 and 2022). The black population has shown a slight increase from 3% in 2013 to 6% in 2022. However, there is no clear correlation between these minor demographic shifts and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that the city is likely to maintain its low violent crime rates. The sporadic nature of violent crimes in the past makes precise predictions challenging, but the overall trend indicates that violent crime will remain infrequent, with potentially 0-3 incidents per year.
In summary, New Franklin has demonstrated a generally low and inconsistent pattern of violent crime over the past decade. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and fluctuating but generally low rates of aggravated assault paint a picture of a relatively safe community. While there have been occasional spikes in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults, the recent years' data suggest a trend towards lower crime rates. This analysis underscores the importance of continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.