Violent Crime Trends in New Bloomfield, Missouri: A Study of Stability Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
New Bloomfield, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2017, the city experienced a total of 4 violent crimes, with fluctuations in the annual numbers. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 2,173 in 2010 to 2,814 in 2017, representing a 29.5% increase.
The murder rate in the city remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2017. This stability in the absence of murders, despite population growth, indicates a remarkably low homicide rate per 1,000 residents, consistently at 0. The percentage of state murders attributable to New Bloomfield also remained at 0% throughout this period, suggesting that the city maintained a safer environment compared to other parts of Missouri in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city were infrequent, with only one reported case in 2010. This translated to a rate of 0.46 rapes per 1,000 residents in that year. The percentage of state rapes attributable to New Bloomfield was 0.09% in 2010. Notably, no rapes were reported in subsequent years through 2017, indicating an improvement in this category of violent crime despite population growth.
Robbery trends in New Bloomfield showed a consistently low rate, with zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2017. This translates to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 residents throughout the period, and 0% of state robberies occurring in the city. The absence of robberies, even as the population increased, suggests effective crime prevention or reporting practices in this category.
Aggravated assault trends fluctuated slightly over the years. In 2010, there were no reported cases. However, in 2011, two cases were reported, resulting in a rate of 1.02 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents and representing 0.01% of state aggravated assaults. In 2015, one case was reported, yielding a rate of 0.42 per 1,000 residents and again accounting for 0.01% of state aggravated assaults. The years 2012-2014 and 2016-2017 saw no reported aggravated assaults, indicating overall low levels of this crime type despite population growth.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime. As population density increased from 1,406 per square mile in 2010 to 1,821 per square mile in 2017, the overall violent crime rate remained low with only minor fluctuations. However, the limited number of incidents makes it difficult to establish a strong correlation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), based on the historical data and assuming current conditions persist, we might expect: 1. The murder rate to remain at or very close to zero. 2. Rape incidents to remain rare, with possibly 0-1 cases over the five-year period. 3. Robbery rates to stay at or near zero. 4. Aggravated assaults to potentially occur at a rate of 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, New Bloomfield has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The most notable trend is the consistent absence of murders and robberies, with only occasional incidents of rape and aggravated assault. These findings suggest that the city has managed to preserve a safe environment for its residents, even as it experienced demographic changes. The challenge moving forward will be to maintain these low crime rates as the community continues to evolve.
