Robbery incidents remained relatively stable, ranging from 2 to 6 cases per year. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.30 in 2018 (6 incidents) and was lowest at 0.10 in 2020 and 2022 (2 incidents each year). The city's contribution to state robbery statistics ranged from 0.03% to 0.13%, indicating a consistently small portion of statewide robberies.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 6 in 2022 to 27 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents varied from 0.29 in 2022 to 1.34 in 2021. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0.03% in 2022 and 0.17% in 2014, showing that local trends don't necessarily align with state patterns.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,190 per square mile in 2010 to 1,304 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in total violent crimes, though with significant year-to-year variations.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the recent downward trend observed in 2022, where total violent crimes dropped to 19 from 40 in the previous year. However, given the historical fluctuations, this forecast should be interpreted cautiously.

In summary, Neosho has experienced varying levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common offense. While murder rates have remained low, other violent crimes have shown more variability. The city's contribution to statewide crime statistics remains relatively small across all categories. As the population continues to grow, ongoing monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining public safety in Neosho.