Robbery incidents have remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 3 robberies, which remained the same in 2022. However, there was a notable spike in 2020 with 11 robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.27 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022, due to population growth. The city's percentage of state robberies has remained consistently low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.05% over the period.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 64 aggravated assaults, which decreased to 52 in 2022, representing an 18.75% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.80 in 2010 to 3.80 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 0.19% in 2014 and dropping to 0.07% in 2022. This trend suggests an overall improvement in public safety regarding severe physical attacks.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,342 per square mile in 2010 to 1,665 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.25 to 4.38. This suggests that despite growing denser, the city has managed to reduce its violent crime rate.

Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 41% in 2013 to 49% in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crimes. Conversely, the black population percentage decreased from 24% to 15% during the same period, correlating with the decline in violent crimes.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, the city may see a further decrease in overall violent crime rates. The aggravated assault rate is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching around 40 incidents per year. Rape cases might stabilize around 5-6 per year, while robbery rates could remain low at 3-4 incidents annually. Murder rates are projected to remain sporadic, with years of zero incidents interspersed with occasional single cases.

In conclusion, Navasota has shown a general improvement in violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable changes have been in aggravated assaults, which have decreased substantially. While rape incidents have increased, they remain a small percentage of state totals. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have a complex relationship with crime rates, suggesting that community dynamics play a crucial role in public safety outcomes.