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Violent Crime Trends in Murrysville, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Low Murder Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Murrysville, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study for violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 4 in 2015 and 2018 to a high of 29 in 2014. The population during this timeframe remained relatively stable, growing modestly from 20,837 in 2010 to 20,775 in 2018, an increase of less than 1%.
Examining murder trends, the city reported only one incident in 2013, accounting for 0.24% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.047 murders per 1,000 residents in 2013. In all other years from 2010 to 2018, no murders were reported, indicating an exceptionally low murder rate for the city.
Rape incidents in the city were sporadic and infrequent. Two cases were reported in 2011, 2012, and 2016, while one case was reported in 2017. In the years 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018, no rape incidents were reported. The highest percentage of state rape cases was 0.13% in both 2011 and 2012. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its peak in 2011 and 2012 at approximately 0.095 cases per 1,000 people.
Robbery trends showed some variation, with the highest number of incidents (4) occurring in 2010 and 2012. The city's contribution to state robbery cases peaked at 0.03% in these years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2010 and 2012 at about 0.19 robberies per 1,000 people. In contrast, no robberies were reported in 2013, indicating a fluctuating pattern.
Aggravated assault incidents saw the most significant variation among violent crimes. The year 2014 stood out with 28 reported cases, accounting for 0.22% of the state's total. This spike resulted in a rate of 1.32 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents in 2014. In contrast, 2015 saw only one reported case, demonstrating substantial year-to-year fluctuations.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between the city's racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 94% in 2013 to 93% in 2018, there was a corresponding increase in diversity. This period coincided with some fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly the spike in aggravated assaults in 2014. However, it's important to note that the overall crime rates remained relatively low throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and recent trends, we can anticipate that violent crime rates in Murrysville will likely remain low and stable. The sporadic nature of violent crimes in the city suggests that any significant increases are likely to be anomalies rather than indicative of a long-term trend. The city may continue to see occasional fluctuations, particularly in aggravated assault cases, but overall violent crime rates are expected to remain well below national averages.
In conclusion, Murrysville demonstrates a pattern of generally low violent crime rates with occasional spikes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The city's stable population and predominantly white demographic composition, coupled with its low crime rates, suggest a relatively safe community environment. However, the occasional fluctuations in violent crime incidents underscore the importance of continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain and improve public safety in the years to come.
