Robbery trends show a different pattern. Despite population growth, robbery cases decreased from 151 in 2010 to 59 in 2022, a 60.93% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.38 to 0.36. The city's share of state robberies slightly decreased from 1.95% to 1.79% during this period, suggesting a more significant improvement in robbery rates compared to the state average.

Aggravated assault cases have risen, from 410 in 2010 to 645 in 2022, a 57.32% increase. However, the rate per 1,000 people only increased slightly from 3.75 to 3.97. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 1.95% to 2.78%, indicating a faster rise in these incidents compared to the state average.

There is a notable correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,706 per square mile in 2010 to 2,537 in 2022, violent crime rates also generally increased. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median rent, which increased from $866 in 2013 to $1,313 in 2022, and the overall increase in violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue increasing, potentially reaching around 950-1,000 incidents annually. This projection is based on the historical trend and assumes similar growth patterns in population and other contributing factors.

In summary, Murfreesboro has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as rape and aggravated assault have increased significantly. The city's rapid population growth appears to be a key factor influencing these trends. As Murfreesboro continues to expand, addressing the rising violent crime rates, particularly in areas like rape and aggravated assault, will be crucial for maintaining public safety and quality of life for its residents.