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Violent Crime Trends in Mount Vernon, Illinois: A Decade of Resilience Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mount Vernon, Illinois, a city with a rich history dating back to the early 19th century, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes in the city fluctuated, starting at 191 in 2011 and ending at 171 in 2020, representing a 10.5% decrease. During this same period, the population declined from 21,331 in 2011 to 20,078 in 2020, a 5.9% decrease.
The murder rate in Mount Vernon has remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. However, there were notable exceptions in 2015 and 2017, when 2 murders were reported each year, and in 2019, when 3 murders occurred. These spikes translated to murder rates of 0.098, 0.100, and 0.148 per 1,000 residents, respectively. The percentage of state murders attributed to Mount Vernon peaked in 2019 at 0.41%, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to the state average that year.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 11 in 2011 to a peak of 27 in 2018, before decreasing to 11 again in 2020. This represents a rape rate fluctuation from 0.516 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 1.339 per 1,000 in 2018, and back down to 0.548 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has varied, peaking at 1.09% in 2012 and dropping to 0.32% by 2020, suggesting a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Robbery trends in Mount Vernon have shown a general decline over the decade. The number of robberies decreased from 18 in 2011 to 24 in 2020, with a peak of 37 in 2013. When adjusted for population, the robbery rate increased slightly from 0.844 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 1.195 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated, ranging from 0.10% in 2011 to 0.24% in 2013, and settling at 0.23% in 2020, indicating a slight increase in the city's contribution to state robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated from 162 in 2011 to 136 in 2020, peaking at 183 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 7.595 in 2011 to 9.089 in 2018, before decreasing to 6.774 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has varied, reaching a high of 1.62% in 2013 and declining to 0.49% by 2020, suggesting a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density has steadily decreased from 1,456 per square mile in 2011 to 1,370 per square mile in 2020, coinciding with the overall decrease in violent crimes. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the slight increase in the Black population (from 10% in 2013 to 12% in 2020) and fluctuations in certain violent crime categories, particularly aggravated assault.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total violent crimes. The model predicts that by 2029, Mount Vernon may see its total violent crime count decrease to approximately 150-160 incidents per year, assuming current demographic and socioeconomic trends persist.
In summary, Mount Vernon has experienced a complex evolution of its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While total violent crimes have decreased, individual categories such as rape and robbery have shown fluctuations. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally decreased across most categories, indicating relative improvement. As Mount Vernon continues to navigate these challenges, ongoing monitoring and targeted interventions may help maintain and potentially improve upon these trends in the coming years.
