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Violent Crime Trends in Mount Sterling: A Small Illinois City's Stable Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mount Sterling, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 4,087 in 2022 and covering an area of 1.11 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. The total number of violent crimes decreased from 5 in 2011 to 4 in 2012, representing a 20% reduction, while the population declined by 0.96% during the same period.
Analyzing murder trends in the city reveals a consistent absence of such crimes. In both 2011 and 2012, there were no reported murders, maintaining a 0% rate per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's total murders. This stable trend suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides, despite the small population changes.
Rape incidents show a concerning shift. In 2011, there was one reported rape, which accounted for 0.06% of the state's total. However, in 2012, no rapes were reported. While this represents a 100% decrease, the small sample size makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. The rape rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.24 in 2011 to 0 in 2012, indicating an improvement in this aspect of public safety.
Robbery statistics remain constant, with zero incidents reported in both 2011 and 2012. This consistency suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the city, maintaining a 0% rate per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's total robberies across both years.
Aggravated assault, the most prevalent violent crime in the city, remained stable with 4 incidents reported in both 2011 and 2012. This consistency occurred despite a slight population decrease, resulting in a marginal increase in the rate per 1,000 people from 0.96 in 2011 to 0.97 in 2012. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults remained at 0.02% for both years, indicating that its assault rates are relatively low compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and crime rates. As the population density decreased slightly from 3,754 people per square mile in 2011 to 3,718 in 2012, the total violent crime rate remained relatively stable. The racial distribution data available from 2013 onwards shows a predominantly white population (67% in 2013) with a significant black minority (25% in 2013), but without earlier data, it's challenging to draw direct correlations to the crime rates in 2011-2012.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's projected that violent crime rates in Mount Sterling may continue to remain relatively stable over the next five years, reaching 2029. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the small sample size and limited timeframe of available data.
In summary, Mount Sterling demonstrates a relatively stable violent crime environment, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and robberies, along with the fluctuation in rape incidents, paints a picture of a small city with manageable crime rates. The consistency in aggravated assaults suggests that focused community policing and social programs targeting this specific issue could potentially improve the overall safety profile of the city in the coming years.
