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Violent Crime Trends in Mount Gilead: Population Decline and Increasing Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mount Gilead, a town in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 2 to 8, representing a 300% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 4,868 to 3,903, a decline of approximately 19.8%.
The murder rate in Mount Gilead has shown significant variability. In 2011, 2015, and 2021, there were no reported murders. However, in 2018 and 2022, one murder was reported in each year. This translates to a rate of 0.21 murders per 1,000 people in 2018 and 0.26 per 1,000 in 2022, reflecting the impact of population decline on per capita crime rates. The city's contribution to state murder statistics also fluctuated dramatically, from 0% in most years to 0.35% in 2018 and 0.17% in 2022. These figures suggest that while murders are rare events in the city, when they do occur, they have a notable impact on both local and state statistics due to the small population size.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadically reported. No data was available for 2011, 2015, and 2018. In 2021, one rape was reported, accounting for 0.05% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.25 rapes per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, in 2022, no rapes were reported. The inconsistent reporting and low numbers make it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that rape remains an infrequent crime in the city.
Robbery trends in Mount Gilead have shown some consistency. One robbery was reported in 2011, 2015, and 2021, representing 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.02% of state robberies respectively. In 2018, there was a spike with 3 robberies, accounting for 0.06% of state robberies. However, in 2022, no robberies were reported. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.21 in 2011 to 0.62 in 2018, before dropping to 0 in 2022. This indicates a general downward trend in robberies, especially considering the declining population.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most dramatic increase. From 1 case in 2011 and 2015 (0.01% of state cases each year), the number rose to 7 in 2022 (0.03% of state cases). This represents an increase from 0.21 assaults per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 1.79 per 1,000 in 2022. The sharp rise in aggravated assaults, particularly in 2022, is the primary driver of the overall increase in violent crime in the city.
There appears to be a correlation between the rise in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage increased from 49% in 2013 to 59% in 2022, violent crime also saw an uptick. Simultaneously, the black population decreased from 38% to 34%. This demographic shift coincided with the rise in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Mount Gilead may see a continued increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 12-15 incidents annually if current trends persist. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary contributor to this increase.
In summary, Mount Gilead has experienced a significant increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, despite a declining population. The town's contribution to state crime statistics remains relatively small, but the per capita crime rates have increased notably. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a changing social dynamic in the town that warrants attention from local authorities and community leaders to address and mitigate the rising violent crime rates.
