Robbery incidents have been relatively rare in the city. From 2010 to 2015, there were no reported robberies. The first reported cases appeared in 2016 with 2 incidents, followed by 2 in 2017, 3 in 2019, and 1 in 2020. In 2022, there were no reported robberies. The highest robbery rate was in 2019 at 0.35 per 1,000 residents, representing 0.03% of the state's total robberies that year.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 14 cases, representing 0.06% of the state's total. The number peaked in 2017 with 24 cases (0.09% of the state's total) and reached its lowest in 2020 with just 1 case. In 2022, there were 16 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.13% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from a high of 2.81 in 2017 to a low of 0.12 in 2020, with the 2022 rate at 1.88 per 1,000 residents.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,897 per square mile in 2010 to 1,773 in 2022, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates, but no consistent trend. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with a slight decrease from 96% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, which doesn't show a strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Mount Carmel may stabilize or slightly decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The murder rate is likely to remain very low, possibly at zero, given the historical trend. Rape incidents may fluctuate but are predicted to average around 2-3 cases annually. Robbery incidents are expected to remain rare, potentially occurring once every few years. Aggravated assaults are projected to remain the most common violent crime, with an estimated 15-20 cases annually.

In summary, Mount Carmel has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The isolated murder in 2020 and the recent uptick in rape cases in 2022 warrant attention, but overall, the city's violent crime trends do not show alarming increases. The declining population and stable racial composition suggest that demographic shifts have not significantly impacted crime rates. Moving forward, maintaining community policing efforts and addressing the root causes of aggravated assaults could help ensure the city's safety and potentially further reduce violent crime incidents.