Robbery trends in Moscow have been minimal, with only two reported incidents over the decade – one each in 2011 and 2012. These isolated events translated to rates of 0.36 and 0.35 robberies per 1,000 residents in those respective years. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.01% in these years, dropping to 0% for the remainder of the period. This indicates an overall improvement in robbery prevention or reporting within the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city, showing significant fluctuations. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 1 in 2016 to a high of 10 in 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 3.39 in 2015 and dropped to 0.32 in 2016. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics varied, reaching a maximum of 0.05% in 2015 and declining to 0.01% by 2020. This volatility suggests changing local factors influencing assault occurrences or reporting practices.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 2,129 per square mile in 2010 to 2,205 in 2020, violent crimes generally decreased, with some fluctuations. Median rent showed a slight positive correlation with crime reduction, rising from $797 in 2013 to $779.5 in 2020 as violent crimes decreased. Racial distribution changes, particularly the increase in the white population from 60% in 2013 to 59% in 2020, coincided with the overall decrease in violent crimes, suggesting a potential, though not definitive, correlation.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that the total number of violent crimes could stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime. The city may continue to see years with zero reported murders, rapes, and robberies, maintaining its relatively low crime profile.

In summary, Moscow has demonstrated a generally improving violent crime situation over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant changes have been in aggravated assaults, while other violent crimes have remained consistently low or non-existent. These trends, coupled with demographic and economic shifts, suggest that the city is maintaining and potentially improving its safety profile. As Moscow moves forward, continued monitoring and community engagement will be crucial in sustaining and further improving these positive trends in violent crime reduction.