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Violent Crime Trends in Montgomery, Ohio: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Cincinnati Suburb
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Montgomery, located in Ohio, is a small suburban community with a population of 15,510 as of 2022. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 4 to 8, representing a 100% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 14,126 to 15,510, an increase of 9.8%.
The city has maintained a consistently low murder rate throughout the observed period. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported murders in Montgomery. This absence of murders, despite population growth, indicates a rate of 0 per 1,000 people and 0% of state crime for this category. The stable zero murder rate suggests a generally safe environment for residents.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported rape, which increased to 3 in 2019, before decreasing to 2 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.071 in 2010 to 0.129 in 2022. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to Montgomery rose from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022. This trend indicates a slight increase in the city's contribution to state rape statistics, though the numbers remain relatively low.
Robbery trends show variability, with peaks and valleys throughout the observed period. In 2010, there was 1 reported robbery, which increased to 5 in 2015, before dropping to 0 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.071 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robbery crimes fluctuated, peaking at 0.06% in 2015 and dropping to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests an overall improvement in robbery prevention within the community.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which increased to 6 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.142 in 2010 to 0.387 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault crimes increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This trend indicates a growing concern for public safety, albeit still at relatively low levels compared to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,661 per square mile in 2010 to 2,922 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall increase. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between the percentage of white residents and violent crime rates. As the white population decreased slightly from 82% in 2013 to 78% in 2022, violent crimes showed a general upward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crime numbers if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city may experience around 10-12 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults likely contributing the most to this increase.
In summary, Montgomery has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults, while maintaining low rates of murders and seeing fluctuations in rapes and robberies. Despite this increase, the overall crime rates remain relatively low compared to state figures. The city's growing population density appears to have some influence on crime rates, and demographic shifts may play a role in these trends. As Montgomery continues to evolve, local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing the rising aggravated assault rates while maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories.
