Robbery incidents have shown a more positive trend, decreasing from 26 cases in 2010 to 32 in 2022, representing a 23.08% increase. However, when considering population growth, the robbery rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 0.687 to 0.817. The city's percentage of state robberies remained relatively stable, moving from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have increased in absolute numbers, they have not outpaced population growth significantly.

Aggravated assault cases have seen a substantial increase, rising from 43 incidents in 2010 to 66 in 2022, a 53.49% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 1.136 to 1.685 during this period. The city's share of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, moving from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This significant increase in aggravated assaults, both in absolute numbers and relative to population, is a concerning trend that warrants attention from law enforcement and community leaders.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some noteworthy patterns. The increase in violent crimes appears to coincide with changes in the city's racial composition. From 2013 to 2022, the Hispanic population increased from 41% to 45%, while the White population decreased from 38% to 29%. This shift in demographics may be associated with socioeconomic factors that could influence crime rates, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in overall violent crimes. Based on the historical data and current trajectories, the model predicts that by 2029, the city could see approximately 130-140 violent crimes annually if current trends persist without intervention.

In summary, Monrovia has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in the categories of rape and aggravated assault. While robbery rates have remained relatively stable when accounting for population growth, the overall trend indicates a need for comprehensive strategies to address public safety concerns. The changing demographic landscape of the city may be a factor influencing these trends, highlighting the importance of community-based approaches to crime prevention and social cohesion. As the city looks towards the future, proactive measures and targeted interventions will be crucial in reversing these trends and ensuring the safety and well-being of all residents.