Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Monongahela: A Decade of Fluctuation and Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Monongahela, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study for violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small city of just 1.91 square miles has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 45.45%, from 22 to 12 incidents, while the population decreased by 5.37%, from 4,372 to 4,137 residents.
The city has fortunately maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2019. This absence of homicides, despite population changes, reflects positively on the community's safety. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and consequently, the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has also been nil throughout this period.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were single reported cases in 2010, 2012, 2016, and 2018, with no reports in other years. The rape rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0 and 0.24 during reported years. The city's contribution to state rape statistics varied, reaching a peak of 0.11% in 2017 when two cases were reported. This inconsistent pattern suggests that while rape is not a persistent issue, occasional incidents do occur, warranting continued vigilance.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the decade. The number of robberies decreased from 7 in 2010 to 1 in 2019, a reduction of 85.71%. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.60 to 0.24 during this period. The city's share of state robberies also declined, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2018, with a slight uptick to 0.11% in 2019. This overall downward trend in robberies is a positive development for the community's safety.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. The number of aggravated assaults fell from 14 in 2010 to 11 in 2019, a 21.43% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.20 to 2.66. Interestingly, despite the decrease in absolute numbers, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2019, suggesting a faster decline in such crimes at the state level compared to the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,285 per square mile in 2010 to 2,162 in 2019, violent crimes generally trended downward, albeit with some fluctuations. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the city's racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 91% in 2013 to 93% in 2022, violent crime rates showed an overall decline, suggesting a potential link between demographic stability and crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Monongahela may see a further reduction in violent crimes. The total number of violent incidents could potentially decrease to around 8-10 per year, with robberies and aggravated assaults likely to show the most significant reductions. However, given the city's small size, even minor fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on crime rates.
In conclusion, Monongahela has shown a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The absence of murders, decreasing robbery rates, and overall decline in violent incidents, despite a shrinking population, suggest improving safety conditions. However, the sporadic nature of certain crimes like rape and the fluctuations in aggravated assaults indicate that continued law enforcement efforts and community engagement will be crucial in maintaining and further improving public safety in this Pennsylvania city.
