Robbery rates in Moberly have generally declined over the years. The number of robberies peaked at 8 in 2013 but has since decreased, with only 2 incidents reported in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has correspondingly dropped from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated but remained relatively low, peaking at 0.16% in 2013 and standing at 0.07% in 2022.

Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic fluctuations among violent crimes in Moberly. The number of incidents rose sharply from 18 in 2015 to 114 in 2018, before declining to 31 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people similarly spiked from 1.13 in 2015 to 7.37 in 2018, then decreased to 2.02 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults reached a high of 0.69% in 2018 before falling to 0.18% in 2022.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in Moberly. As the population density decreased from 1,197 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,164 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly noticeable in the last few years of the data set. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 87% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, and the black population increased from 7% to 9% during the same period, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly aggravated assaults.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decline in violent crimes if current trends persist. The murder rate is likely to remain low but may continue to fluctuate between 0 and 2 incidents per year. Rape incidents might stabilize around 3-4 cases annually. Robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly averaging 2-3 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults, which have shown the most volatility, may continue to decrease, potentially settling around 25-30 cases annually by 2029.

In summary, Moberly has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with a notable overall decrease in recent years. The city has seen improvements in robbery and aggravated assault rates, while murder rates have remained relatively low. However, the spike in rape cases in 2021 warrants continued attention. The relationship between population density, racial demographics, and crime rates suggests that ongoing demographic changes may influence future crime trends in Moberly.