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Violent Crime Trends in Milton, Florida: A Decade of Significant Decrease Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Milton, located in Florida, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 59.38%, from 32 incidents to 13. During this same period, the population grew by 21.44%, from 15,139 to 18,385 residents.
Murder trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting zero incidents. The only exceptions were in 2011, 2017, and 2020, each with one reported murder. Despite these isolated cases, the murder rate per 1,000 people has consistently stayed close to zero. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city has fluctuated, reaching 0.17% in 2011 and 0.16% in 2017, before dropping to 0.13% in 2020. This suggests that while murders are rare, when they do occur, they represent a small but noticeable portion of the state's total.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. The number of reported rapes peaked at 6 in 2013 and 2019, with a rate of 0.38 per 1,000 people in 2013 and 0.35 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.18% in 2013 and dropping to 0% in 2020. The most recent data from 2022 shows 2 reported rapes, representing 0.12% of the state's total, indicating a decrease in both number and state percentage in recent years.
Robbery incidents have shown a general downward trend. The highest number of robberies was 10 in 2010, with a rate of 0.66 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this had decreased to 2 incidents, or 0.11 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.07% in 2022 despite the lower number of incidents, suggesting a potential statewide decrease in robberies.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. The highest number was 31 in 2015, with a rate of 2 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this had decreased to 9 incidents, or 0.49 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics peaked at 0.09% in 2015 and stood at 0.07% in 2022, indicating a relatively consistent proportion of state totals despite the decrease in raw numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,688 per square mile in 2010 to 3,265 in 2022, the total violent crime incidents decreased. There also seems to be a correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage slightly increased from 77% in 2020 to 79% in 2022, violent crime rates decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend in violent crime to continue, albeit at a slower rate. The city may see total violent crime incidents stabilize around 10-15 per year, with potential fluctuations due to the small sample size.
In summary, Milton has experienced a significant decrease in violent crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite population growth. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively low, with some fluctuations. The downward trend in violent crime, coupled with increasing population density and slight changes in racial composition, suggests an improving safety profile for the city. However, ongoing monitoring and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in Milton.
