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Violent Crime Trends in Mexico, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement in a Small Urban Center
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mexico, Missouri, a small urban center with a population of 14,064 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 38.24%, from 34 to 21 incidents, while the population saw a modest increase of 1.88% during the same period.
The murder rate in this city has been remarkably low, with only three reported cases between 2010 and 2021. Two of these occurred in 2020, representing 0.32% of the state's total murders that year. This spike briefly elevated the murder rate to 0.14 per 1,000 residents, a significant increase from the city's typical rate of zero. However, by 2021, the murder rate had returned to zero, demonstrating the rarity of such incidents in this community.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, peaking at 10 cases in 2021, a sharp increase from 2 cases in 2020. This rise pushed the rape rate to 0.72 per 1,000 residents in 2021, up from 0.15 in 2020. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city also increased from 0.1% in 2020 to 0.47% in 2021. This trend is concerning and warrants attention from local law enforcement and community support services.
Robbery rates have remained relatively stable, with a slight downward trend. The number of robberies decreased from 5 in 2017 to 3 in 2021, reducing the rate from 0.36 to 0.22 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.16% over the years, settling at 0.1% in 2021. This suggests that while robberies occur, they are not a predominant issue in the community.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown a significant decrease over time. In 2010, there were 26 cases (1.91 per 1,000 residents), which dropped to 8 cases (0.58 per 1,000 residents) by 2021. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases also decreased from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2021, indicating a positive trend in reducing violent confrontations within the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak negative relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased slightly from 1,122 per square mile in 2010 to 1,143 in 2021, the overall violent crime rate decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crimes, primarily driven by the recent uptick in rape cases. However, murder rates are expected to remain near zero, and robbery and aggravated assault rates are likely to stay relatively stable or continue their gradual decline.
In summary, Mexico, Missouri has shown overall improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions in aggravated assaults and relatively stable low rates of murder and robbery. The recent increase in rape cases is the most pressing concern that local authorities should address. Despite this, the city maintains a violent crime profile that is generally lower than its contribution to the state's population would suggest, indicating a relatively safe environment for its residents.
