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Violent Crime Trends in Merriam, Kansas: A Decade of Significant Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Merriam, Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 28 to 75, representing a significant 167.86% increase. Interestingly, this surge in violent crime occurred against a backdrop of relatively stable population growth, with the city's population only increasing by 1.59% from 13,557 in 2011 to 13,334 in 2022.
The murder rate in the city has shown notable fluctuations over the years. In 2011, there were no reported murders, but this changed in 2012 with 2 cases, representing 2.9% of the state's total. The city then experienced periods of no murders in 2016, 2019, and 2020, before again recording 2 cases in 2022, accounting for 1.87% of the state's total. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2011 to 0.15 in 2022. This trend suggests an uptick in the severity of violent crime, despite its infrequent occurrence.
Rape cases have shown a relatively consistent pattern, with some fluctuations. In 2011, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 8 in 2012 and remained at that level through 2016. By 2022, the number had decreased to 3 cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.22 in 2011 to 0.22 in 2022, indicating stability relative to population growth. However, the city's percentage of state rape cases decreased from 0.34% in 2011 to 0.31% in 2022, suggesting a slight improvement relative to statewide trends.
Robbery trends show a concerning increase over time. In 2011, there were 7 reported robberies, which increased to 10 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.52 in 2011 to 0.75 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's percentage of state robbery cases jumped dramatically from 0.51% in 2011 to 1.38% in 2022, indicating that robbery has become a more significant issue in this city compared to the rest of the state.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes. In 2011, there were 18 reported cases, which surged to 60 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased substantially from 1.33 in 2011 to 4.50 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.3% in 2011 to 0.79% in 2022, suggesting that while the problem has grown significantly within the city, it hasn't outpaced state trends as drastically as robbery.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the city's white population percentage and violent crime rates. As the white population decreased from 76% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, violent crime rates increased. Conversely, there's a positive correlation between the Hispanic population growth (from 10% in 2013 to 14% in 2022) and the rise in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate that by 2029 (five years from now), the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 100 cases annually if current trends continue. This projection is based on the observed increase from 28 cases in 2011 to 75 in 2022, assuming a similar rate of growth.
In summary, Merriam has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and robberies. This trend has occurred despite relatively stable population growth, suggesting underlying socio-economic factors may be at play. The changing demographic composition of the city appears to correlate with these crime trends, pointing to potential areas for focused community engagement and crime prevention efforts. As the city moves forward, addressing these rising crime rates will likely be a key priority for local law enforcement and community leaders.
