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Violent Crime Trends in Meridian, Idaho: A Decade of Growth and Changing Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City
Meridian, located in Idaho, has experienced significant growth and changes in its violent crime patterns over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 72.22%, from 108 to 186 incidents. During this same period, the population grew substantially, rising from 75,324 in 2010 to 129,730 in 2022, representing a 72.23% increase.
Murder rates in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no consistent trend. The highest number of murders recorded was 4 in 2019, representing 28.57% of the state's total. However, in most years, including 2021 and 2022, there were no reported murders. When considering the population growth, the murder rate per 1,000 people has generally decreased over time, from 0.04 per 1,000 in 2010 to 0 per 1,000 in 2022. This suggests that despite population growth, the city has managed to maintain relatively low murder rates.
Rape incidents have shown an overall increase, rising from 17 cases in 2010 to 41 in 2022, a 141.18% increase. The rate per 1,000 people has also increased slightly from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases has fluctuated, peaking at 9.37% in 2017 and settling at 6% in 2022. This trend indicates that while rape incidents have increased, they have not grown proportionally with the population, suggesting other factors may be influencing this crime category.
Robbery trends have been relatively stable, with a slight increase from 11 cases in 2010 to 12 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people has decreased from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has increased from 5.67% in 2010 to 9.38% in 2022, indicating that while robberies have remained relatively constant in number, they represent a growing proportion of state-wide incidents.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes, rising from 77 cases in 2010 to 133 in 2022, a 72.73% increase. The rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, from 1.02 in 2010 to 1.03 in 2022, suggesting that the increase in assaults has largely kept pace with population growth. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults has increased from 4.19% in 2010 to 5.6% in 2022, indicating a growing share of these incidents within the state.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and population density, which rose from 2,069 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,565 in 2022. Additionally, median rent has increased from $1,070 in 2013 to $1,789 in 2022, potentially indicating economic pressures that could influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue increasing, potentially reaching around 240-250 incidents annually. This projection is based on the historical growth rate and assumes similar population growth and socioeconomic factors continue.
In summary, Meridian has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault, which have largely kept pace with the substantial population growth. While murder rates have remained low, the city's share of state-wide violent crimes has generally increased across categories. The correlation between rising population density, increased median rent, and violent crime rates suggests that managing urban growth and addressing potential economic stressors may be crucial in mitigating future crime trends in Meridian.
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