Robbery statistics for Menifee show a consistent pattern of zero incidents from 2016 to 2022. This stability is notable, especially considering the population changes during this period. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state robberies attributed to Menifee have remained at 0% throughout these years.

Aggravated assault trends in Menifee have fluctuated over the years. The town reported no incidents in 2016 and 2019, one incident each in 2018 and 2020, a peak of three incidents in 2021, and one incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest point at 3.47 in 2021 before decreasing to 1.09 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to Menifee has ranged from 0% to 0.02%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2021.

Analysis of correlations reveals a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates in Menifee. As the population density decreased from 518 per square mile in 2016 to 404 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed a slight increase. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions. The available data does not indicate significant correlations between median rent or racial distribution and violent crime trends in the town.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the limited data available, suggests a potential slight increase in overall violent crime incidents. The model indicates that by 2029, Menifee could potentially experience 4-5 violent crime incidents annually, with aggravated assaults and rapes being the most likely types of incidents. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the small sample size and fluctuating nature of the data.

In conclusion, Menifee, Arkansas has experienced a complex interplay of demographic changes and violent crime trends from 2016 to 2022. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased slightly, the town has maintained zero incidents in certain categories like murder and robbery. The most notable changes have been in rape and aggravated assault cases, which have shown some increase, particularly in recent years. These trends, set against the backdrop of a declining population, suggest that Menifee may need to focus on targeted crime prevention strategies, especially for assault and sexual offenses, to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.