Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. There were no reported robberies except for single incidents in 2013 and 2014, and two cases in 2016. Since 2017, there have been no reported robberies, suggesting effective crime prevention strategies or a naturally low incidence of this type of crime.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases increased from 3 in 2010 to a peak of 13 in 2019, before declining to 5 in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0.60 per 1,000 people in 2010 to a peak of 1.88 per 1,000 in 2019, followed by a decrease to 0.57 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults peaked at 0.07% in 2019 but decreased to 0.02% by 2022, indicating a significant improvement relative to state trends.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,242 per square mile in 2010 to 2,179 in 2022, there was an initial increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation weakened in recent years as crime rates decreased despite continued population growth.

Racial demographics show a slight correlation with crime trends. The percentage of white residents decreased from 91% in 2013 to 86% in 2016, coinciding with an increase in violent crimes. However, as the white population percentage stabilized around 90% from 2018 to 2022, violent crime rates began to decline, suggesting a complex relationship between demographic changes and crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The city's growing population and increasing density may put upward pressure on crime rates, but improved law enforcement strategies and community engagement could help maintain the recent downward trend in violent crimes.

In summary, Medina has experienced significant population growth accompanied by fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. While there have been increases in certain types of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, recent years have shown promising decreases across most categories. The absence of murders and the decline in robberies are particularly positive indicators. As the city continues to grow, maintaining and improving upon these recent positive trends in violent crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.