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Violent Crime Trends in McComb, Mississippi: A Decade of Fluctuations and Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
McComb, Mississippi, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with notable changes in specific crime categories. During this period, the population showed a slight decline, moving from 16,161 in 2010 to 15,581 in 2017, a decrease of approximately 3.6%.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant volatility. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.91% of the state's total. This figure increased to 4 murders in 2011, a sharp rise to 2.92% of the state's total. However, by 2012, there were no reported murders, dropping to 0% of the state's share. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 0.24 per 1,000 in 2011 and falling to zero in 2012 and 2014. This volatility suggests that while murder is not a consistent problem, when it does occur, it can represent a significant portion of the state's total.
Rape data for the city is largely unavailable for most years, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends. The only reported figures are 2 incidents (0.42% of state total) in 2010 and 3 incidents (0.66% of state total) in 2012. This limited data prevents a comprehensive analysis of rape trends in relation to population or state percentages.
Robbery incidents show a general downward trend over the reported years. In 2010, there were 41 robberies (1.92% of state total), which decreased to 15 robberies (1.3% of state total) by 2017. The rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 2.54 in 2010 to 0.96 in 2017. This decline in both absolute numbers and rate per capita suggests an improvement in robbery-related safety over the years.
Aggravated assault figures demonstrate significant fluctuation. In 2010, there were 37 incidents (1.81% of state total), which increased to 89 incidents (4.9% of state total) by 2017. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.29 in 2010 to 5.71 in 2017. This substantial increase, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, indicates a growing concern for aggravated assaults in the city.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's demographic shifts and violent crime trends. As the Black population percentage increased from 60% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, there was a concurrent rise in aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors likely play a role in these trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued increase in aggravated assaults if current trends persist. Robbery rates are likely to remain relatively low, while murder rates may continue to fluctuate unpredictably due to their low frequency and high variability.
In summary, McComb's violent crime landscape is characterized by decreasing robbery rates, highly variable murder rates, and a concerning upward trend in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and slight population decline, suggest a need for targeted interventions, particularly in addressing the rising aggravated assault incidents. The city's law enforcement and community leaders may need to focus on understanding and mitigating the factors contributing to this specific type of violent crime.
