Robbery trends in Maryville showed a significant decline. The number of robberies dropped from 19 in 2010 to 0 in 2022, a 100% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.412 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also decreased dramatically, from 0.25% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.

Aggravated assault cases in Maryville increased over the period. The number rose from 35 in 2010 to 47 in 2022, a 34.29% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people grew slightly from 0.758 in 2010 to 0.880 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022, suggesting a growing challenge in this area.

A strong correlation exists between the increase in population density and the rise in certain violent crimes, particularly rape and aggravated assault. As the population density increased from 2,672 per square mile in 2010 to 3,093 in 2022, these crime categories saw corresponding increases. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 92% in 2013 to 91% in 2022) and the overall increase in violent crimes, though this relationship requires careful interpretation.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Maryville may see a continued increase in rape and aggravated assault cases if current trends persist. The murder rate is likely to remain low but unpredictable, while robberies may continue to be rare or non-existent. Overall violent crime could potentially increase by 10-15% from 2022 levels, primarily driven by increases in rape and aggravated assault.

In summary, Maryville has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While robberies have significantly decreased and murders remain infrequent, the city has seen concerning increases in rape and aggravated assault cases. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and changing demographics, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies focusing on sexual violence and assault prevention. As Maryville continues to grow, balancing development with effective law enforcement and community safety initiatives will be crucial for maintaining the city's overall quality of life.