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Violent Crime Trends in Marshall, Illinois: A Small City's Struggle with Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Marshall, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over recent years. From 2015 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 1 in 2015, peaking at 8 in 2016, and returning to 8 in 2022, representing a 700% increase over this period. Interestingly, this crime trend occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 6,319 in 2015 to 5,992 in 2022, a 5.2% reduction.
The analysis of murder trends in the city reveals a consistently low rate, with zero reported cases from 2015 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population fluctuations, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the observed period. The percentage of state crime for murder also remained at 0%, indicating that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city show a similar trend to murder, with zero reported cases from 2015 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for rape both remained at 0% throughout the period, suggesting that this particular violent crime has not been a significant issue for the community during the years observed.
Robbery trends in the city fluctuated over the years. In 2015, there were no reported robberies. The number increased to 2 in 2016, representing 0.01% of the state's robberies, then decreased to 1 in 2017 (0.01% of state robberies), before returning to 0 from 2018 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at approximately 0.33 per 1,000 residents, then declined to 0 in subsequent years.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2015, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 6 in 2016 (0.02% of state assaults), then decreased to 2 in 2017 (0.01% of state assaults). From 2018 to 2019, there were 4 cases each year (0.02% and 0.01% of state assaults respectively). In 2022, the number doubled to 8 cases, representing 0.06% of state assaults. The rate per 1,000 people increased from approximately 0.16 in 2015 to 1.33 in 2022, indicating a significant rise in the prevalence of this crime relative to the population.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,722 per square mile in 2015 to 1,633 in 2022, violent crimes increased. This suggests that factors other than population density are driving the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the observed patterns, we might expect the number of aggravated assaults to continue to increase slightly, potentially reaching 10-12 cases annually. However, other forms of violent crime are likely to remain low or non-existent if current trends persist.
In summary, Marshall has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes from 2015 to 2022, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. This trend is particularly noteworthy given the concurrent decrease in population. The city has maintained zero incidents of murder and rape throughout the observed period, while robbery cases have fluctuated but remained low. The most concerning trend is the substantial increase in aggravated assaults, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals. These findings suggest a need for focused crime prevention strategies, particularly targeting the root causes of aggravated assaults in the community.
