Robbery trends have been more volatile but show an overall decline. In 2010, there were 17 robberies (0.03% of state total), which decreased to 15 in 2022 (0.04% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.857 in 2010 to 0.683 in 2022, representing a 20.3% decrease. This improvement suggests that anti-robbery measures may have been effective over the years.

Aggravated assault cases have increased substantially. In 2010, there were 32 incidents (0.04% of state total), rising to 47 in 2022 (0.05% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.614 in 2010 to 2.140 in 2022, a 32.6% rise. This significant increase in aggravated assaults is a major contributor to the overall rise in violent crime in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density rose from 2,225 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,466 in 2022, violent crime rates also increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime trends. For instance, the percentage of Asian residents increased from 15% in 2013 to 18% in 2017, coinciding with a period of relatively stable violent crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is projected that the city may continue to see a moderate increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The model suggests that aggravated assaults and rapes may continue to rise, while robbery rates might stabilize or slightly decrease.

In conclusion, Marina faces significant challenges in addressing its rising violent crime rates, particularly in the areas of rape and aggravated assault. While some positive trends are evident, such as the overall decrease in robbery rates, the city's law enforcement and community leaders will need to implement targeted strategies to address the growing violent crime issues. The correlations between population density, demographic shifts, and crime rates suggest that future urban planning and community development initiatives should consider these factors to create a safer environment for all residents.