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Violent Crime Trends in Marengo, Illinois: A Study of Stability Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Marengo, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2013 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, peaking at 13 in 2014 and declining to 3 by 2018, representing a 76.9% decrease over this period. During the same timeframe, the population experienced a slight decline from 9,503 in 2013 to 9,274 in 2018, a decrease of 2.4%.
The murder rate in this city has remained consistently at zero from 2013 to 2018, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This statistic has held steady despite minor population fluctuations, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state crime for murder has consequently remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. In 2013, there was no data available, but from 2014 to 2018, the number of reported rapes ranged from 1 to 2 cases per year. The rape rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.11 in 2014 to 0.22 in 2018, despite the slight population decrease. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to the city increased from 0.03% in 2014 to 0.05% in 2018, suggesting a slight upward trend in this category of violent crime relative to the state.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. From 2013 to 2016, there were no reported robberies. In 2017, there was a single reported case, resulting in a rate of 0.11 per 1,000 residents and accounting for 0.01% of state robberies. By 2018, the number returned to zero. This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the city, with only a brief spike in 2017.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most fluctuation among violent crimes in the city. The number peaked at 12 cases in 2014, resulting in a rate of 1.27 per 1,000 residents and accounting for 0.05% of state aggravated assaults. However, by 2018, this had dropped to just 1 case, or 0.11 per 1,000 residents, representing only 0.004% of state cases. This significant decrease suggests improved safety regarding aggravated assaults over the five-year period.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased slightly from 1,067 per square mile in 2013 to 1,041 in 2018, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend, despite some fluctuations. The racial distribution remained relatively stable during this period, with the white population comprising the majority (around 80-86%), and does not show a strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the violent crime rate in the city could potentially decrease further if current trends continue. The total number of violent crimes might stabilize at around 2-3 incidents per year, with rape and aggravated assault being the most likely to occur, while murder and robbery rates are expected to remain very low or at zero.
In conclusion, Marengo has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction from 2013 to 2018. The consistently low murder rate, infrequent robberies, and declining aggravated assaults paint a picture of a relatively safe community. However, the slight uptick in rape cases warrants attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining and improving upon these trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
