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Violent Crime Trends in Marble Hill, Missouri: A Study of Declining Population and Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Marble Hill, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a notable decrease from 24 incidents in 2011 to 9 in 2022, representing a 62.5% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 3,522 in 2010 to 2,751 in 2022, a 21.9% decrease.
Examining murder rates, the city has maintained a consistently low profile, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population decline, suggesting that factors contributing to homicides have remained well-controlled despite demographic changes.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only three reported cases over the 13-year period: one each in 2010, 2011, and 2016. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.33, with the highest occurring in 2016 when the population was 3,045. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to the city fluctuated between 0% and 0.09%, with the peak in 2010-2012. The low and inconsistent nature of these incidents makes it challenging to discern a clear trend but suggests that sexual violence is not a persistent problem in the community.
Robbery trends in the city show a clear decline over time. The highest number of robberies (6) occurred in 2011, representing 0.1% of state robberies. From 2013 onwards, there were no reported robberies, indicating a significant improvement in this area of violent crime. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.76 in 2011 to 0 and has remained at zero since 2013, despite population fluctuations.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, showing considerable variation over the years. The highest number of cases (17) was reported in 2011, representing 0.12% of state aggravated assaults. There was a sharp decline to 4 cases in 2012, and the numbers have fluctuated since then, with a recent uptick to 13 cases in 2020 and 9 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people has ranged from 0 (in 2017) to 5.0 (in 2011), with recent years showing rates between 3.27 and 4.65 per 1,000 residents.
A strong correlation exists between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As the population density decreased from 2,128 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,662 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly noticeable in robbery and overall violent crime numbers. This suggests that the lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for certain types of violent crime.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a slight increase in aggravated assaults to approximately 11-12 cases per year, while murder, rape, and robbery rates are likely to remain very low or at zero. The overall violent crime rate is expected to stabilize around 4-5 incidents per 1,000 residents, assuming the population continues its current trend.
In summary, Marble Hill has demonstrated a generally improving trend in violent crime over the past decade, with significant reductions in robberies and fluctuating but manageable levels of aggravated assaults. The absence of murders and low incidence of rapes contribute to a relatively safe environment. The correlation between declining population density and reduced violent crime suggests that demographic changes have played a role in shaping the city's safety profile. As the community moves forward, maintaining vigilance in crime prevention strategies, particularly for aggravated assaults, will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends.
