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Violent Crime Trends in Manvel, Texas: A Decade of Growth and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Manvel, located in Texas, has experienced significant population growth and fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 7 to 15, representing a 114.29% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 16,891 to 28,909, a 71.15% increase. This analysis will delve into the specific violent crime trends and their relationship to the city's evolving demographics.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only two instances recorded in the data set. In 2014 and 2017, there was one murder each year, representing 0.11% and 0.09% of the state's total murders, respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.055 in 2014 and 0.047 in 2017, showing a slight decrease relative to population growth. The infrequency of murders makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that homicides are not a prevalent issue in the city.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with the highest number (3) reported in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.136 in 2018 and decreased to 0.069 in 2022. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city ranged from 0% to 0.03%, indicating a relatively small contribution to the state's total. The inconsistent pattern of rape cases suggests that while it remains a concern, there is no clear upward or downward trend.
Robbery occurrences have been sporadic, with the highest number (3) reported in 2011. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has generally decreased over time, from 0.175 in 2011 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has remained low, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total. This downward trend in robberies, especially when considered against the growing population, suggests an improvement in this aspect of public safety.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 2 in 2014 to a high of 23 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.817 in 2021 and decreased to 0.450 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has varied between 0% and 0.03%. The sharp increase in 2021 followed by a decrease in 2022 warrants attention, as it could indicate either an anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 618 per square mile in 2010 to 1,058 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also generally increased, though not at the same rate. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime trends. For instance, as the Black population percentage increased from 13% in 2013 to 23% in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is projected that by 2029, the city may experience approximately 20-25 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most prevalent. This forecast assumes that current demographic trends and socioeconomic factors continue along similar trajectories.
In summary, Manvel has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns amidst rapid population growth. While murder and robbery rates have remained relatively low, aggravated assault has emerged as the primary concern. The city's changing demographics, particularly in terms of population density and racial composition, appear to correlate with these crime trends. As Manvel continues to grow, addressing the factors contributing to aggravated assault should be a priority for maintaining public safety and community well-being.
