Robbery trends show a general decline over the years. From a high of 7 incidents in 2010, robberies decreased to 2 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.93 in 2010 to 0.26 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total. This downward trend in robberies is a positive indicator for public safety in the area.

Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, has shown significant fluctuations. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 11 in 2022 to a high of 36 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, peaking at 4.88 per 1,000 in 2020 and dropping to 1.45 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has generally remained between 0.03% and 0.06%, with a slight decrease in recent years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between demographic shifts and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 35% in 2013 to 48% in 2022, there was a concurrent overall decrease in violent crimes, particularly notable in the last two years. This suggests that demographic changes have not led to increased crime rates, contrary to some stereotypes.

Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that violent crime rates will continue to decrease over the next five years, reaching approximately 10-12 incidents annually by 2029. This forecast assumes continued stability in population growth and demographic trends.

In summary, Luling has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime, with recent years showing promising declines across most categories. The city's ability to maintain low murder rates, reduce robberies, and address fluctuations in other violent crimes speaks to effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. As Luling continues to evolve demographically, maintaining these positive trends in crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.