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Violent Crime Trends in Little Falls, Minnesota: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Little Falls, located in Minnesota, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates while its population grew from 11,965 to 12,137, a modest increase of 1.44% over 12 years.
The murder rate in Little Falls has remained exceptionally low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period. In 2011, there was one murder, representing 1.64% of the state's total, and another in 2021, accounting for 0.53% of state murders. With a population hovering around 12,000, these isolated incidents translate to a rate of approximately 0.08 murders per 1,000 residents in the years they occurred. The rarity of these events makes it challenging to establish a meaningful trend, but it's clear that murder is not a persistent issue in the city.
Rape cases in Little Falls have shown some variability. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2020, representing 0.29% of the state's total. This translates to about 0.42 rapes per 1,000 residents for that year. In contrast, there were years with no reported rapes, such as 2019. The trend appears inconsistent, with spikes in 2014 (3 cases, 0.2% of state total) and 2017 (3 cases, 0.15% of state total). Overall, the rape rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated between 0 and 0.42 over the years, without a clear upward or downward trend.
Robbery incidents in the city have been scarce. Only two robberies were reported over the 13-year period: one in 2016 and another in 2018. These represented 0.03% and 0.04% of the state's total robberies, respectively. With such low numbers, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents has remained close to zero, peaking at about 0.09 per 1,000 in the years when incidents occurred. This suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Little Falls. The number of cases has fluctuated, with a peak of 14 incidents in both 2020 and 2021, representing 0.18% and 0.15% of the state's total, respectively. The lowest number was 2 cases in 2016. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents has ranged from about 0.17 to 1.18, with the highest rates occurring in recent years. This suggests a slight upward trend in aggravated assaults, though the numbers remain relatively low for a city of this size.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,488 per square mile in 2010 to 1,510 in 2022, there was a general, though inconsistent, upward trend in total violent crimes. However, the relationship is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Little Falls may see a slight increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 20-25 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue. However, given the city's historically low crime rates, significant spikes are unlikely unless there are major changes in socioeconomic conditions or other external factors.
In summary, Little Falls has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. While there have been fluctuations in crime rates, the overall numbers remain low for a city of its size. The community's ability to keep serious crimes like murder and robbery to a minimum is noteworthy. Moving forward, focusing on preventive measures for aggravated assaults could help maintain the city's overall safety and quality of life.
