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Violent Crime Trends in Licking, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Licking, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 5,598 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates alongside modest population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, reaching a peak of 9 incidents in 2016 and dropping to zero in 2021, before rising slightly to 2 incidents in 2022. This represents a 0% change over the 12-year period. During the same timeframe, the population decreased slightly from 5,640 in 2010 to 5,598 in 2022, a decline of about 0.74%.
Regarding murder trends, the city experienced only two incidents over the 12-year period, one in 2011 and another in 2016. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.18 murders per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city was 0.34% in 2011 and 0.22% in 2016. Given the rarity of these events, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's noteworthy that no murders were reported in 10 out of the 12 years analyzed.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic, with no more than one case reported in any given year. The city reported one rape in 2010, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2022. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.18 rapes per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city ranged from 0.05% to 0.09% in the years when incidents occurred. The inconsistent nature of these occurrences makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it's important to note that in 6 out of the 12 years, no rapes were reported.
Robbery has been an infrequent crime in the city, with only two incidents reported over the 12-year period - one in 2011 and another in 2018. This equates to a rate of about 0.18 robberies per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state robberies attributed to the city was 0.02% in both 2011 and 2018. The low frequency of robberies suggests that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, with numbers fluctuating over the years. The highest number of aggravated assaults was 7 in both 2016 and 2019, while the lowest was 0 in 2021. In 2022, there was 1 reported case. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 1.29 over the period. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures varied, reaching a high of 0.05% in 2019 and dropping to 0.01% in 2022. Despite fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary violent crime concern for the city.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,646 per square mile in 2010 to 2,627 in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated without a clear pattern. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing about 85-88% of residents. This stability in demographics does not seem to correlate strongly with the variations in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the inconsistent nature of the data. However, based on the overall trend of low crime rates and the recent decrease in violent crimes from 2019 to 2022, it's reasonable to predict that violent crime rates will likely remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0 to 5 incidents per year, barring any significant changes in local conditions or demographics.
In summary, Licking has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent concern. The sporadic nature of other violent crimes makes it difficult to establish clear trends, but the overall picture suggests a community with infrequent serious criminal activity. The city's small size and stable demographics likely contribute to this pattern of low crime rates, though continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention efforts will be important to maintain this positive trend into the future.
