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Violent Crime Trends in Libby, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Libby, Montana, a small community nestled in the northwestern part of the state, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 14 to 11, representing a 21.43% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased from 6,018 in 2010 to 5,914 in 2022, a slight decline of 1.73%.
In terms of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, Libby has maintained a remarkably consistent record with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population changes over time. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating a consistently safe environment in this regard.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. There was one reported case in 2010, followed by several years with no reported incidents. In 2018 and 2019, there was one case each year, and by 2022, this number increased to two. Despite this increase, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively low, rising from 0.17 in 2010 to 0.34 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics fluctuated, peaking at 0.84% in 2010 and settling at 0.5% in 2022.
Robbery trends in Libby have been minimal. From 2010 to 2019, there were no reported robberies. In 2020, one case was reported, and this number remained the same in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.17 robberies per 1,000 people in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics went from 0% to 0.43% in 2022, indicating a slight increase in its share of state robberies, albeit with very low numbers.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated over the years, starting at 13 in 2010, dropping to a low of 2 in 2018 and 2020, and then rising to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.16 in 2010 to 1.35 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics also varied, peaking at 1.55% in 2010 and decreasing to 0.34% in 2022.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 3,266 per square mile in 2010 to 3,210 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, though with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the racial distribution and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased slightly from 93% in 2017 to 88% in 2022, coinciding with a small increase in violent crimes during the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crimes if current trends continue. The number of violent crimes may rise to approximately 13-15 annually, with aggravated assaults potentially making up the majority of these incidents.
In summary, Libby has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with no murders, few robberies, and fluctuating but generally low numbers of rapes and aggravated assaults. The most significant trend has been the overall decrease in violent crimes despite some recent upticks. These findings suggest that while the city has made progress in reducing violent crime, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies may be necessary to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
