Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2011 to 2022. This consistent absence of robberies suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of this particular crime category.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, from a low of 14 in 2012 and 2020 to a high of 36 in 2016. In 2022, there were 16 reported cases, resulting in a rate of 2.34 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has generally decreased over time, from 1.91% in 2011 to 0.68% in 2022, suggesting that while assault remains an issue, its relative severity compared to the state has diminished.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city has maintained a predominantly white population, with the percentage consistently above 94% throughout the observed period. This lack of significant racial diversity makes it difficult to draw meaningful correlations between race and crime rates. However, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,240 per square mile in 2011 to 1,194 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a slight increase.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the city may experience continued low to zero murder rates, a possible slight increase in rape incidents, potentially reaching 10-12 cases per year, ongoing absence or very low incidence of robbery, and a stabilization of aggravated assault cases, likely ranging between 15-20 per year.

In summary, Lewistown has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault and rape being the primary concerns. Despite some increases in specific crime categories, the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low for a city of its size. The community's consistent demographic composition and decreasing population density appear to have some influence on crime trends, though the relationships are not strongly pronounced. Moving forward, while the city may continue to face challenges with certain violent crimes, particularly assaults and rapes, the overall crime landscape is expected to remain stable or show modest improvements in the coming years.