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Violent Crime Trends in Lebanon, Ohio: A Decade of Mixed Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lebanon, Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 22 incidents in 2010 to 32 in 2022, representing a 45.5% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 27,883 to 30,199, a 8.3% increase, indicating that violent crime has outpaced population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only two reported cases over the 12-year period - one in 2010 and another in 2016. This translates to an average of 0.036 murders per 1,000 people in those years, compared to zero in other years. The percentage of state murder rate attributed to Lebanon peaked at 0.25% in 2010 and 0.19% in 2016, dropping to 0% in most other years. This suggests that while murders are rare, they have a significant impact on state percentages when they do occur.
Rape incidents have shown considerable volatility. The number of reported rapes increased from 9 in 2010 to a peak of 21 in 2018, before declining to 10 in 2022. This represents a 0.32 per 1,000 people rate in 2010, rising to 0.74 per 1,000 in 2018, and settling at 0.33 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has fluctuated, peaking at 0.58% in 2012 and dropping to 0.25% by 2022. This indicates that while rape remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has decreased in recent years.
Robbery trends show a general decline over time. From a high of 8 incidents in 2011 (0.28 per 1,000 people), robberies decreased to zero reported cases in 2022. The city's share of state robbery statistics peaked at 0.07% in 2013 and 2014, dropping to 0% by 2022. This trend suggests significant improvement in robbery prevention or reporting within the city.
Aggravated assault has shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 8 reported cases (0.29 per 1,000 people), which rose to 22 cases in 2022 (0.73 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022. This indicates that aggravated assault has become a more prominent issue in the city over time.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in population density and the rise in aggravated assaults. As the population density grew from 2,116 per square mile in 2010 to 2,291 in 2022, aggravated assaults increased proportionally. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 92% in 2014 to 90% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Lebanon may see: a continued low murder rate, likely remaining at 0-1 incidents per year; rape cases potentially stabilizing around 12-15 per year; robbery cases remaining low, possibly between 0-3 per year; and aggravated assaults potentially increasing to 28-30 cases per year.
In summary, Lebanon has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murders and robberies have remained low or decreased, aggravated assaults have seen a significant uptick. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to be factors in these trends. As Lebanon continues to grow, addressing the rise in aggravated assaults should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders to maintain the overall safety and well-being of its residents.
