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Violent Crime Trends in Lebanon, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lebanon, Missouri, is a small urban center with a population of 22,006 as of 2022. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 13.7%, from 51 to 58 incidents, while the population grew by 5.8%, from 20,801 to 22,006.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. The number of murders per year ranged from 0 to 2, with no consistent trend. In 2022, there was 1 murder, representing 0.19% of the state's total murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0 and 0.09, with the highest rate occurring in 2018 and 2021 at 0.09 per 1,000 residents. Despite these fluctuations, the overall murder rate remained relatively low compared to larger urban areas.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 5 reported rapes, which increased to 17 in 2022, a 240% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.77 in 2022. Moreover, the city's contribution to the state's total rape cases increased significantly, from 0.47% in 2010 to 0.81% in 2022. This trend suggests a growing issue with sexual violence that requires attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery trends have been relatively stable with a slight increase over time. In 2010, there were 3 robberies, which increased to 4 in 2022, a 33.3% increase. The robbery rate per 1,000 people remained low, ranging from 0 to 0.23 over the period. The city's share of state robberies increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating a slightly higher contribution to state-wide robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in Lebanon, showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 41 aggravated assaults, which decreased to 36 in 2022, a 12.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.97 in 2010 to 1.64 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases decreased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, suggesting that the reduction in Lebanon outpaced the state-wide trend.
An examination of correlations reveals a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,420 per square mile in 2010 to 1,502 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in overall violent crime incidents. Additionally, there appears to be a weak correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and the rise in certain violent crimes, particularly rape and robbery.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the observed patterns. Rape incidents may continue to increase, potentially reaching 20-25 cases annually. Robbery rates are likely to remain stable or show a slight increase, possibly reaching 5-6 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 35-40 cases annually. Murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable, likely ranging from 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Lebanon has experienced a mixed trend in violent crime over the past decade. While aggravated assaults have decreased, there has been a concerning rise in rape incidents. Robbery rates have remained relatively stable, and murder rates continue to be low but variable. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on addressing the rising rape statistics while maintaining vigilance in other areas of violent crime prevention. As Lebanon continues to grow and diversify, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.
