Robbery has been a rare occurrence in Le Roy, with most years recording zero incidents. However, there was a notable spike in 2020 with 2 robberies reported, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.47 robberies per 1,000 people for that year. The infrequency of robberies in other years makes it difficult to establish a trend, but it highlights that even small communities can experience sudden increases in certain crime categories.

Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in Le Roy, with numbers ranging from 1 to 6 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 1.38 per 1,000 in 2014 (6 cases) and a low of 0.24 per 1,000 in 2022 (1 case). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault figures has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.03% in 2014. The overall trend shows a slight decrease in aggravated assaults over time, which is a positive development for community safety.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,808 per square mile in 2010 to 1,742 in 2022, there was a general, though not consistent, trend of lower violent crime incidents. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent increases and fluctuations in violent crime. As median rent rose from $580 in 2013 to $778 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed some variability, but without a strong consistent pattern.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime incidents. Based on the historical data and current trends, Le Roy might expect to see an average of 4-6 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime. However, given the small number of incidents and population size, even minor fluctuations can appear as significant percentage changes.

In summary, Le Roy has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, with some year-to-year variations. The absence of murders, infrequent robberies, and a generally decreasing trend in aggravated assaults are positive indicators for community safety. While rape incidents have fluctuated, they remain relatively low. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained minimal across all categories of violent crime. These trends, coupled with the slight population decline and increasing median rent, paint a picture of a small city managing to maintain a relatively safe environment despite economic pressures.