Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Lawton, Oklahoma: A Military City Faces Rising Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lawton, Oklahoma, a city with a rich military history due to its proximity to Fort Sill, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Lawton increased by 7.9%, from 831 to 767 incidents. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 6.4%, from 97,832 to 91,553 residents, highlighting a concerning trend of rising crime rates in a shrinking populace.
The murder rate in Lawton has shown a dramatic increase over the years. In 2010, there were 3 murders, which rose to 22 in 2022, representing a 633% increase. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.031 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022, a sevenfold increase. The city's share of state murders also grew significantly, from 1.92% in 2010 to 11.11% in 2022. This surge in murders, especially relative to the state, suggests a growing concentration of violent crime within the city limits.
Rape incidents in Lawton have fluctuated but show an overall increasing trend. From 60 cases in 2010 to 98 in 2022, there was a 63.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.61 to 1.07, indicating that rape incidents increased faster than the population decreased. The city's percentage of state rape cases increased slightly from 4.97% to 5.4%, suggesting that this issue is growing at a pace similar to the state average.
Robbery trends in Lawton present a more positive picture. The number of robberies decreased from 113 in 2010 to 54 in 2022, a 52.2% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also fell from 1.16 to 0.59. However, the city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable, moving from 3.49% to 3.51%, indicating that the decrease in robberies is part of a broader state trend rather than a city-specific improvement.
Aggravated assault cases in Lawton have seen a slight decrease, from 655 in 2010 to 593 in 2022, a 9.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, moving from 6.7 to 6.48. The city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 6.17% to 5.53%, suggesting that Lawton's assault rates are declining at a pace similar to the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between violent crime trends and population density in the city. As the population density decreased from 1,201 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,124 in 2022, violent crime rates per capita increased, particularly for murders and rapes. This suggests that the remaining population may be more vulnerable to violent crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in the murder rate, potentially reaching 30-35 incidents per year if current trends persist. Rape cases are expected to stabilize around 100-110 annually. Robbery rates may continue to decrease slightly, potentially dropping to 40-45 cases per year. Aggravated assaults are projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 580-620 cases annually.
In conclusion, Lawton faces significant challenges with its violent crime rates, particularly in the areas of murder and rape. The city's shrinking population coupled with rising violent crime rates per capita paints a concerning picture for public safety. While robberies have shown improvement, the dramatic increase in murders and the persistent rise in rape cases demand immediate attention and intervention strategies from local law enforcement and community leaders to reverse these trends and improve the safety and quality of life for Lawton's residents.
