Robbery has been a rare occurrence in the city. Only one robbery was reported in 2015, with no other incidents recorded from 2010 to 2021. This single case in 2015 resulted in a robbery rate of 0.26 per 1,000 people for that year and represented 0.02% of the state's robbery cases. The near-absence of robberies suggests that this form of violent crime is not a significant concern for the community.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Lathrop. The number of incidents has fluctuated significantly, from a low of 1 case in 2019 to a high of 17 cases in 2014. The rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people peaked at 4.55 in 2014 and dropped to 0.47 in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has also varied, reaching a maximum of 0.12% in 2014 and declining to 0.01% in 2021. This indicates a general downward trend in aggravated assaults over the past few years, despite some year-to-year variations.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates in Lathrop. As the population density increased from 853 per square mile in 2010 to 1,034 per square mile in 2022, there were fluctuations in violent crime rates, with the highest number of incidents occurring in 2014 when the population density was 891 per square mile. However, the relationship is not consistently linear, suggesting other factors may influence crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and recent downward trend, it is projected that Lathrop may continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The city might see an average of 3-5 violent crime incidents per year, primarily consisting of aggravated assaults and occasional rape cases. However, this projection assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain relatively stable.

In summary, Lathrop has shown resilience in maintaining low violent crime rates, particularly with the absence of murders and the rarity of robberies. The most significant challenge appears to be aggravated assaults, though even these have shown a declining trend in recent years. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth is noteworthy and suggests effective community policing and social cohesion. As Lathrop continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the city's safety and quality of life.