Robbery incidents in Lancaster have shown a general decline over the years. From 56 robberies in 2010, the number decreased to 19 in 2022, a 66% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.17 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has also decreased from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This significant reduction in robberies is a positive trend for the city's safety.

Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase, from 28 incidents in 2010 to 68 in 2022, a 143% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.58 in 2010 to 1.35 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults rose from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.40% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests a need for focused efforts to address the rising incidents of aggravated assault.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,527 per square mile in 2010 to 2,664 in 2022, violent crime rates also showed an upward trend. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 96% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 3% during the same period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns continue, Lancaster may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes by 2029. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching around 80-85 incidents annually. Robbery rates may stabilize at their current lower levels, while rape incidents could fluctuate between 20-30 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain very low, with most years potentially seeing zero incidents, barring unforeseen spikes.

In summary, Lancaster has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While robberies have significantly decreased and murder rates remain exceptionally low, the city faces challenges with increasing aggravated assaults. The overall violent crime rate has largely kept pace with population growth, suggesting a need for continued vigilance and targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing aggravated assaults, to ensure the safety and well-being of Lancaster's residents in the coming years.