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Violent Crime Trends in Lakewood, New Jersey: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lakewood, New Jersey, a city with a rich history and diverse community, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease of 8.85% from 113 incidents in 2010 to 123 in 2022. This trend occurred against a backdrop of substantial population growth, with the city's population increasing by 12.17% from 66,405 in 2021 to 74,485 in 2022.
The murder rate in the city has shown considerable variability over the years. In 2010, there were 4 murders, representing 1.43% of the state's total. This figure dropped to zero in 2018 and 2022, indicating periods of no reported murders. When accounting for population growth, the murder rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.060 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city fluctuated, reaching a peak of 2.68% in 2015 before dropping to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests an overall improvement in the city's murder rate relative to its population growth and the state's figures.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. From 5 cases in 2010 (0.95% of state total) to 14 cases in 2022 (2.12% of state total), there was a 180% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.075 in 2010 to 0.188 in 2022. This significant increase, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, indicates a growing issue that requires attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery cases have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 51 robberies (0.61% of state total), which decreased to 25 cases in 2022 (1.04% of state total). Despite the lower number of incidents, the city's share of state robberies increased, suggesting a faster decline in robbery rates elsewhere in the state. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.768 in 2010 to 0.336 in 2022, reflecting an improvement in this aspect of public safety.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 53 cases (0.61% of state total), which rose to 84 cases in 2022 (1.48% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.798 in 2010 to 1.128 in 2022. This upward trend, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, indicates a growing concern for community safety.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 9,379 per square mile in 2021 to 10,521 in 2022, there was a corresponding shift in crime patterns. Additionally, changes in racial distribution seem to correlate with crime trends. The white population percentage increased from 80% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, coinciding with fluctuations in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), we anticipate a continuation of the current trends. Murders are expected to remain low or at zero, while rape cases may continue to rise if current patterns persist. Robbery cases are likely to stabilize at their current lower levels, while aggravated assaults may see a moderate increase.
In summary, Lakewood has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murder and robbery rates have generally improved, the city faces growing challenges with rape and aggravated assault incidents. These trends, coupled with the city's rapid population growth and changing demographics, underscore the need for targeted public safety strategies to address specific areas of concern and maintain overall community well-being.
